Stone Cold Locks
By Bob Gaughan
2023 Record 78-69-3
2022 Record 68-41-2
2021 record 62-49
2020 record 52-52-4
2019 Record 62-41-2
2018 Record 72-50-3
Total: 392-301-14=56%
Mr. Over/Under: First Score of the Game will be a Field Goal/ Safety +155
Overall, I'd say this was a very difficult year for betting NFL games. Injuries were a big part of that, especially at the QB position. Miami looked like the hottest team in the league at one point, with a 70-20 blow out of Denver. The Bill's looked almost out of the playoffs, losing to the 2 worst teams in their division, then came on strong, only to lose at home in the playoffs for the second year in a row. One thing is for sure, when it comes to the playoffs, Patrick Mahomes can't be counted out.
Every year I make the same bet on the Super Bowl. It lost last year, but I really like it this year. Both teams have a good defense, and Vegas expects a close game. It might take a couple series to get each team's offense in a grove. That's why I expect the first score of the game to be a field goal. It's a +155 bet, which means it's one of the best prop bets for this game. You might even want to consider a higher pay off betting that KC or San Fran's first score will be a field goal. However I think whoever gets the ball first, drives down the field, gets close to the end zone, but settles for a field goal. Enjoy the game.
Man in Stripes: Chiefs Money Line
A million bets you can make on the Super Bowl and we are going with a ML pick. The spread is bouncing between dead numbers 1-2.5. So lets grab a little plus money!!! Simply here are the numbers. Andy Reid is 31-7 all time SU coming off a bye. Patrick Mahomes is 10-0-1 ATS as an underdog. The underdog is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 SBs!!! The Chiefs have the better head coach, the better quarterback and the much better kicker. The kicker might come into play Sunday. I’m not standing in front of that train. Niners were fortunate to win both of their playoff games. The Chiefs are not going to gift SF this game. Yes I am looking at you Dan Campbell. It should be a great game, but Mahomes/Reid and company win #3 let’s say 27-23.
Few others:
KC/SF 2H under 23.5 Chiefs 18-2 this year on second half unders.
Purdy over 11.5 rushing yards.
2Q highest scoring quarter +140
CMC and Pacheco anytime TD parlay +150
Tails never fails, why not. Enjoy the game!!!!
Mono: First Drive UNDER 3:15
These two offenses are primed to blow up. BUT, there will be a feeling out process for whoever gets the ball first. The Chiefs are powered by a strong defense under Spags. One I think will confuse Purdy out of the gate if SF gets the ball first. One the other side the Niners defense has holes but is strong up he middle. The Chiefs lack the big play this year but will test them over the top now that MVS has found himself. Lots of question marks! One first down might cook us, but I love this bet as we get to sit back and enjoy the first commercial break with money in our pocket. Love the first drive to end by the 11:45 mark of the first quarter. Fun year. Fun game. Go 9ers!
Brutal: KC + 1.5 over SF
This point in the year KC is the better team. SF better not get themselves in a hole like they did vs Detroit. I get the better QB and some points. SF is whining all week. This isn’t good. They are complaining about the field at UNLV that they have to practice on. They have been complaining about how KC holds on the offensive line. I believe that KC not only has the better offense but they have the better defense right now. This isn’t a bet for the whole year this is a bet for how the teams are playing right now. I take into account Andy Reid coming off of the bye stats and Mahomes as an underdog stats and like the slight dog.
Philly: 49ers -1.5 over KC
Being a bartender you get to hear a lot of commentary whether you agree or disagree. Most times I smile, nod my head and ask if they want another beer. I have heard repeatedly about this being a boring Super Bowl. I simply do not understand that. The San Francisco 49ers have star power on both sides of the ball. McCaffrey, Kittle, Samuel, Aiyuk are top tear weapons in the NFL. Those weapons surround a great game manager who is capable of capitalizing in the big play with Purdy. On the defensive side you have Bosa and Young on the line, Fred Warner in the middle and Ward has been solid at DB. They have been great against the pass while struggling a little vs the run. I do expect Mahomes to have some challenges. With the Chiefs they finally have a defense that can step up. I hate the similarities I am beginning to see with Mahomes and Brady, but Mahomes is working with an unbelievable tight end in Kelce, and a mediocre receiver group. If the Chiefs can stay in the game there isn’t a person I’d rather have the ball in his hands right now than Mahomes. The Chiefs have been shaky all year but they are putting it together at the right time. Sound familiar??? Will the most talented team beat the best quarterback in the league is a debate we are not new too. I am going to say yes, I expect the 49ers to strike early and hold onto a close game.
Bob: Isaiah Pacheco over 66.5 yards
Pacheco has equaled or exceeded this in all of the playoff games so far this year. That includes against the tough Ravens defense. He blew this number away against the Dolphins and Bills. The Chiefs have turned into a power running game since the playoffs have begun. I don’t see that changing in this game. San Francisco’s run defense hasn’t been good since the playoffs have started. Aaron Jones of Green Bay gained over 100 yards rushing and the two running backs for Detroit gained well over 130 yards combined in their game. The defensive tackles for San Francisco haven’t been great in the playoffs. That’s not good when going up against the interior offensive line for the Chiefs that have been fantastic in this playoff season. The weakness the Chiefs have on the offensive line is at the tackle position. The Chiefs at the inside positions of the line are actually very good. This appears to me to be a reasonable number and I see no reason why the playoff trend in not going to continue for both of these teams.
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