Stone Cold Locks
By Bob Gaughan
2024 record 63-43-1
2023 Record 82-71-3
2022 Record 68-41-2
2021 record 62-49
2020 record 52-52-4
2019 Record 62-41-2
2018 Record 72-50-3
Total: 459-346-15=57%
MR. OVER/UNDER: First Score a Field Goal or Safety +140
If you’ve been with me over the years, then you know that my Super Bowl pick is the same every year, although these two teams make me want to reconsider. What to do when you have 2 teams with explosive players and outstanding QBs? It makes you think that they’ll be a lot of scoring, which these teams can do. But what about their defenses? The Eagles were ranked #1 and the Chiefs #9. Only 4-yards separate their yards allowed in the playoffs. A turnover could make the difference in this game.
Points can be a premium in a game like this. That’s why I’m sticking with my annual Super Bowl bet, that the first score of the game will be a field goal or safety. The two scores are usually combined into the same bet at around +140. Don’t forget, in Super Bowl 48, with Denver & Seattle, the first play of the game was a safety, so you never know. Is there a good chance the first score of this game will be a TD? Of course, but if it was 4th and 4, with the ball on the opponents 18-yard line, on your first drive, what would you do? Philly might go for it. I think KC would take the 3-points. It’ll be interesting to see which team gets the first possession. Good Luck. See you next year.
Man in Stripes: Philly +7.5/ over 42.5 (6 pt teaser)
Truth be told, I played this 1 hour after the Chiefs AGAIN beat the Bills in the playoffs. That story for another day!!! As our old friend Doug Kezirian, from the firmer Daily Wager would say. THIS IS A BANGER!!!!!Plain and simple these teams get to 20 point each, too much offensive talent on the field (Mahones, Worthy, Hunt, Kelce, Hurts, Barkley, Brown). In a dome, with good, but not great defenses. Nobody punts anymore, it's like a turnover, so 4th and 1 anywhere on the field, teams will go for it. 2 years the teams combined for 73 points, maybe not that many but 50 + should be in play. As for Philly +7.5, doesn't KC ALWAYS PLAY 1 SCORE GAMES!!! We might as fast forward to 3 minutes left one team down 3, from their own 30, trying to win the game. Wait that didn't work out well 2 weeks ago. These teams, QB, and coaches are very evenly matched. I would be shocked if it isn't a 1 score game. I'll teaser the number over 7, I got it 8.5 teased, just after the AFC championship.
Some other props:
Hurts TD-115
Worthy over 6.5 rushing +115
Over 2.5 4th down conversions made
Goedert over 49.5 rec yards
Parlay- Mahomes over 6.5/ Hurts over 9.5 rushing att.
2 pt conversion made- YES
Both teams score 20+ YES
TAILS +100
Longshot-
Octopi- +1300
Goedert 2 +td +2700
Dotson last td +6500
The pick, Chiefs can't win EVERY 1 SCORE GAME!!!! ?? Eagles 31 Chiefs 27, (just because my buddy, Wally and I have 1,7 in a 100$ square pool!!)
Had fun this year, hope we made you some $$$$. Enjoy the game!!!!
Mono: DeAndre Hopkins Over 1.5 Receptions
That time of year to get creative. Last year we went with Chris Jones no sack. Dig the same this year but going another route. D Hops catches are at 1.5. He hasn’t made a huge impact with KC but in his first Superbowl, I expect him to get some looks and make a couple plays. Especially being the 2nd or 3rd read. D Hops over 1.5 catches. Go birds
Brutal: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS vs. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (+1.5)
A lousy Super Bowl is still a Super Bowl and every year we handicap this over-hyped event and brush up on our Roman Numeral skills. The Eagles have the best Offensive-Defensive line combination in the NFL. There have been a couple of injuries to the O line, but one starter is expected back, so Barkley and Hurts should still have plenty of holes to hit against the Chiefs. A few years ago, we saw a similar disparity in the trenches in a previous Super Bowl between Tampa Bay and Kansas City. We rode that to a big 31-9 victory backing Tom Brady and the Buccaneers and a forever scrambling Mahomes who could not evade their pressure and pass rush. There is also the revenge factor; this is a rematch of a recent Super Bowl where Kansas City barely beat the Eagles 38-35 two years ago. Since then, the Eagles have acquired the aforementioned Saquon Barkley and have more-or-less gotten better. Kansas City is probably not quite as good and has won a lot of one score games. Screw them, that ends on Sunday.
So, we have no reservations in backing the Eagles, but we are not very excited. The only problem we have with picking Philadelphia is their mediocre head coach, and their terrible fight song called Fly Eagles Fly.
This song sucks. It is wimpy, predictable, not particularly catchy and is beneath the fundamental aggressive-inspirational intentions of any sports fight song. On the other hand, when sung by drunk Eagles fans, it is more LIVE than anything you will see being performed at the Super Bowl halftime show by Kendrick Lamar. If Six Bankruptcy President Traffic Cone is in love with Executive Orders, maybe he could sign a useful one that requires broadcasters to post a disclaimer before any televised musical presentation that reads:
All or most of this performance is not actually live. Auto-Tune, lip synching, click tracks, Artificial Intelligence, other forms of simulated pitch correction and octave enhancement constitute all or the bulk of this exhibition. It may contain some music performed by actual musicians, but that is unlikely and unexpected.
The actual appearance of the so-called artist is also superfluous to most concert appearances today. With Holographic technology advancing rapidly, it will soon be completely unnecessary for a living, breathing, talent deprived rapper or pop star to actually appear on the stage (and it will be much cheaper and most of the audience will not notice or care anyway).
Some alternate Philadelphia Eagles Fight Songs:
Fly Like an Eagle: Steve Miller Band.
We never particularly liked this song, but it is professionally produced and might have a calming effect on Philly fans who are particularly inspired when infused with alcohol, amphetamines and Ketamine. As a note, do not ever ask Steve Miller about this song or anything else he has ever recorded, because you will soon learn that he himself was more important to the evolution of rock music than the collective talents of the Beatles, The Rolling Stones, Buddy Holly, Chuck Berry, Bo Diddley and Little Richard. We made this mistake once and still regret it.
Day of the Eagle: Robin Trower
This legendary guitarist was dubbed The English Jimi Hendrix, which in the 1970s was an albatross around any musicians' neck. This song was sung by James Dewar, a very overlooked and talented vocalist. This song would be hard for drunk Eagles fans to sing in harmony, but it is heavy, bluesy and more in spirit with the gritty violence inherent in football. It also features incredible, human produced guitar work by the incredible Robin Trower. This song has been covered by various artists including Tesla, The Neville Brothers, Armored Saint, UFO and Billy Idol guitarist Steve Stevens.
Of note, other great guitarists who were slapped with the unfortunate next Hendrix label were:
The German Hendrix: Ulrich Jon Roth (original Scorpions guitarist) and The Canadian Hendrix: Frank Marino (Mahoghany Rush).
On the Wings of an Eagle: John Denver
This song is saccharine smooth and features a lot of stilted flute playing, Hawaiian guitar, yodeling and a children's choir all reiterating the late John Deutschlander's obsession with living in the Rocky Mountains. Not a particularly inspired choice, but it is still better than Fly Eagle Fly.
On the Wings of an Eagle: Raven
A very different song than the same titled work by John Denver. English metal band Raven was one of the foundational members of the movement that introduced the development of thrash metal along with other early Eighties groups like Metallica, Anthrax, Slayer, Megadeth and Razor. This cliche ridden song meanders all over the place like a drunk Eagles' fan, so there would be a certain sympatico of sorts if it was ever sung during a football game, especially with instrumental accompaniment.
Go EAGLES! Happy 2025 to all who followed our very successful handicapping season!
Bob: Mahomes Over 252.5 Passing Yards
I can’t see the Chiefs being able to run in this one. Isiah Pacheco hasn’t been the same since returning from injury. He has lost his starting job to Kareem Hunt. The two rushed for only 75 yards vs the Bills. The Eagles run defense is so much better than the Bills. They have the best defense in football. The Chiefs offense line isn’t the same since they had to move Joe Thuney to tackle. I expect Chiefs offense to have to rely on the arm of Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes has surpassed this number in three of his four Super Bowl appearances. I can see the Eagles taking the lead and the Chiefs having to play from behind, which means more passing attempts. Let’s take Mahomes over yardage as our last play of the year.
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