Stone Cold Locks
By Bob Gaughan
2024 record 0-0
2023 Record 82-71-3
2022 Record 68-41-2
2021 record 62-49
2020 record 52-52-4
2019 Record 62-41-2
2018 Record 72-50-3
Total: 396-303-14=56%
Mr. Over/Under: Under 41.5 Minnesota/ Giants
Welcome back everyone. As I’ve said for years, weeks 1 and 18 are the two most difficult weeks to place a winning bet. Pre-season results can be very misleading, so I still look at statistics from last year, if little has changed with a team. Two things are for sure. #1-more games went under during the pre-season than over. #2-defenses usually have an advantage at the start of the season. Last year, in week #1, only 4-games went over while 12 went under. Minnesota lost it’s rookie starting QB so Sam Darnold will start. Daniel Jones is starting for the Giants. Do either of these QBs excite you? Both teams went 6-11 O/U under last year. I just don’t see a lot of scoring in this game. At 41.5, I’m taking the under.
Man in Stripes: Pittsburgh +3.5 over Atlanta
First week is HARD, really HARD. We are going to go with an old reliable. Steelers and Tomlin getting points! Tomlin is 63% ATS as a dog. I know their QB situation is rough, but Watt, Heyward and Fitzpatrick are on the field. Steelers normally find a way. Falcons come into game with a new HC and Kurt Cousins as their new QB. But when I think of the Falcons they are still trying to over come 28-3 in the SB. It will be ugly, just the way Tomlin likes it. Maybe sprinkle a little on the ML too.
Bonus: Bills go 10-7 and make playoffs. Jets win the division. A step back because might be the least talented team in Allen era. JA17 greatness gets them to 10 wins. Enjoy the games and great to have football back.
Mono: Titans +3.5 over Chicago
I’ve been sitting on this one for over a month! I’ve tried to talk myself out of it but just can’t. Welcome to the NFL Caleb! This is going to be a fun one. It appears the Bears have the advantage on offense and defense. Caleb and the Bears had great success in the preseason but now it starts for real and I think it takes time for them to adjust. L’Jarius Snead will make it difficult for whoever is across from him. Jeffrey Simmons and the Titans defensive front will try to get to Caleb as much as they can. Will Levis is loaded with some new weapons in Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd. The backfield duo of Spears and Pollard should help Levis in the passing game and get some yards on the ground. The offensive line scares me a little bit against a tough Chicago defensive line. I do like the athleticism of Levis to extend some plays and get outside of the pocket when he needs to. Home team gets a few points is the rule in the NFL. I like the line with the points and sprinkle some beer money on the ML as well.
Brutal: Washington State -2.5 over Texas Tech
The two team PAC-12 Conference warriors are both spoiling for a fight this year. The PAC-12 was probably the toughest and best conference in College Football last year, coming within a too-banged-up Michael Penix Jr. and his Washington Huskies of beating the Michigan Wolverines for the National Championship ( the Michigan Wolverines actually once had several caged wolverines as mascots, Biff and Bennie, ..... but gave up because they were too vicious, extremely difficult & dangerous to feed, .... and the football players were terrified to pass the cage on the way from the locker room to the field. Google it.) Alas, due to excessive avarice, greed and the saturated monetization disease our society is suffering from, ..... the once proud west coast conference is down to WSU and Oregon State, but still maintaining the naming rights for the eventual absorption of the Mountain West if they themselves cannot muster a dowry and get invited to one of the despicable Power Five !!!! Cabals in the next year or so.
The Texas Tech Red Raiders are slated to be a midlevel BIG 12 team this year, certainly likely to be bowl eligible for one of the non-playoff bowls ( I am guessing some of those still exist). However, they opened the season with a pathetic 52-51 Overtime victory at home over ....... Abilene Christian!!!! ..... this private, bible thumping Christian university has less than 3,000 undergraduates. The Red Raiders were outgained, out-first downed and lost the time of possession by a comfortable margin but eked out the W in a sloppy overtime. The Abilene Christian Wildcats were 5-6 last year in the FCS 1-AA United Athletic Conference. Last year they also finished on a two game losing streak and had one of the weakest offenses in the entire league. In the season opener last week, their quarterback Maverick McIvor ( this may be the greatest Texas quarterback name ever! And that is saying a lot! ) threw for over 500 yards against Texas Tech right in the heart of Lubbock. Despite the win, you have a hard time believing head coach Joey McGuire and his Red Raider Zorros are brimming with confidence heading to the wilds of Pullman, Washington to face a hostile, defiant, and sold out Martin Stadium.
Last week WSU took care of business against their local cupcake Portland State and laid a 70-30 beating on the Vikings. Everybody saw it as a warm-up for this game on Saturday. Washington State will no longer have many opportunities to play, let alone beat up on so-called Power Five teams anymore, especially at home. The Cougars have motivation, history, other intangibles and a crazy home crowd. Playing in the Palouse, ..... and giving under a field goal that will probably not matter, because, ....... Wazoo wins this easily!
Bonus Pick: Iowa State +3 over IOWA
The Hawkeyes skunked Illinois State last week 40-0 and everybody in Iowa City thinks it means the second coming of Ed Podolak, Dan Gable or Chuck Long. This is because the Iowa offence last year ranked as one of the worst abominations in the history of football, ..... at any level, ..... anywhere, ..... in any era. Big Deal! Illinois State is a mediocre Missouri Valley FCS opponent whose roster this year is filled with first and second year players; beating them is nothing to brag about. Iowa State warmed up last week by playing a very tough North Dakota squad and coming away with a workmanlike 21-3 victory. Iowa State usually plays well in this interstate, intra-conference rivalry game and the games are close. Ex Cyclone QB Brock Purdy said they were his favorite games to play during his college career in Ames and also the most intense. This game is a true, state-wide recruiting battle showcase. For years the University of Iowa tried to avoid playing this traditional game until the Governor of Iowa had to legislate the preservation of the tradition. Cyclone fans never let Hawkeye fans forget this alleged cowardice in their fan posts, coffee shop conversations and game chants.
The over-under total for this game is 35, which may be the lowest in college football this week, including the service academies. In a game that is this low-scoring, with all the intangibles, in a contest that might be won by less than a field goal, ..... facing a still in my mind sub-average Hawkeye offence, ....... I am taking the Cyclones in one of my favorite games to watch each year.
Bob: Cleveland -2.5 over Dallas
This is a bad match-up for the Cowboys. Cleveland’s defense was lights out at home last year averaging giving up only 14 points per game and a little over 200 yards. This allowed the Browns to go 8-1 SU and ATS at home. The Browns pass defense was number one in terms of completion percentage allowed. This is bad news for the Cowboys who are counting on Ezekiel Elliott to be their running game. That means they have to pass, thus going right into the strength of this Browns defense. The Cowboys are starting two rookie lineman, and that isn’t good when going up against this pass rush led by Myles Garrett. Let’s take the Browns at home when giving up less than a field goal.
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