By Bob Gaughan
2022 Record 35-18-2
2021 record 62-49
2020 record 52-52-4
2019 Record 62-41-2
2018 Record 72-50-3
Total: 283-210-11=57%
Mr. Over/Under: Miami -13 over Houston
As I write this, on Wednesday, I’d like to wish you a Happy Thanksgiving.
In the last 2 weeks in the NFL, only 2 games have had a double digit spread. As of today (11/23) 2-games already have double digit spreads for this week and 3 are at 9.5. The odds makers are expecting the good teams to score and the poor teams to not. I usually don’t like betting double digit spreads in the NFL, but this week there’s one game that stands out. In their last 3-games, the Dolphins have averaged 35-points. In their last 3-games, Houston has averaged 14.3-points. That’s over a 20-point differential. Miami is home, the weather (as of today) looks good and so does Miami’s offense. Houston is just a bad team. Take Miami –13.
Man in Stripes: Thanksgiving teaser: Lions +15.5 and Mississippi State +8.5
Lions have won three in a row and are playing much better for Dan Campbell. The defense is definitely playing better than they did at the start of the year. Something seems a little off with JA17. Not sure if it the UCL injury but he’s a little off. Bills fighting through injuries, the WR’s are thin and the defense is thin across the board. Throw in travel issues with the snow and this team might be running on empty.
The Egg bowl with Miss State vs Ole Miss. Big news are the rumors about Lane Kiffin going to Auburn. He has had to address this and to say the least this is a major distraction. These games are normally close. The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven. I smell an upset in Oxford but just in case lets take over a TD.
Mono: Giants +9.5 over Dallas
A big win for Dallas in Minnesota and a head scratching loss by the Giants against the Lions has this spread about six points higher than it should be. The Cowboys are finally finding out how to use Zeke and Pollard effectively. The Giants came back to reality with the loss to the Lions. Luckily they have a short week to bounce back. I expect this to be a one score game. Giants bounce back with a much better performance and keep it around a one score game.
Brutal:Coastal Carolina +14.5 over James Madison
Coastal is getting two touchdowns because they are playing with their back-up QB. Coastal has had a week off to get their backup ready. Coastal has only lost one game all year. This is too many points for a 9-1 team. I like the Coastal defense and their offense has always showed a lot of imagination. James Madison is coming in off an emotional game vs Georgia State where they won a 42-40 thriller. I think Coastal can keep it with two TD’s.
Bob: Indianapolis -2.5 over Pittsburgh
We finish off the long weekend with the Monday night contest. The Colts have played much better since Jeff Saturday has taken over as coach. The Colts have beaten the Raiders then only lost to the Eagles by one. Both of those teams are better than the Steelers. Now they are giving up less than a field goal at home to an inferior team. I don’t get it. I know that TJ Watt is back to help the Steelers defense. Rookie QB’s tend to play better at home than on the road. Kenny Pickett is still looking for his first win on the road. I don’t think he gets it under the bright lights of Monday night football.
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