Stone Cold Locks
By Bob Gaughan
2024 record 4-2
2023 Record 82-71-3
2022 Record 68-41-2
2021 record 62-49
2020 record 52-52-4
2019 Record 62-41-2
2018 Record 72-50-3
Total: 400-305-14=56%
Mr. Over/Under: Washington -1.5 over Giants
Did the upset of the year in the NFL happen in week #1? New England on the road, beating a Cincy team that many predicted could win their division. Now Cincy goes into Kansas City with all kinds of questions about Joe Burrow. If you like KC, grab it before the line keeps changing. I consider myself a little more knowledgeable about AFC teams than NFC teams, but there’s a game this week that stands out to me in the NFC. The Giants, who lost last week at home, against a Washington team that lost last week on the road. I see the Giants still stuck in first gear, while the Commanders with a rookie QB, are trending upwards. Plus this will be rookie Jayden Daniels first start at home and against a division opponent. The crowd will be noisy. The Giants won both games against Washington last year. It’s time for payback. If the Giants could only score 6-points at home last week, how many will they score on the road? I’ll take Washington -1.5 at home.
Man in Stripes: 6-point teaser Baltimore -3 and Atlanta/Philly Over 40.5
Ravens came within a toe of beating the Chiefs on the road. They have extra rest and the Raiders are on the road for the second straight week. To make matters worse the Raiders have to travel cross country for a 10am body clock start. No way the Ravens start 0-2, they roll Vegas and we tease through key numbers 4,6 and 7.
Then MNF with Kirk Cousins who never could win a prime-time game going to Philly. Eagles scored 34 points, and they left points on the table going only 3 of 6 in the red zone. They have the extra rest coming from Brazil. Hurts and company should be able to hang a number on an average Falcons defense. Cousins and company struggled with a blitzing Steelers defense last week. The Eagles don’t usually bring as many rushers. Weather should be great. The Eagles offense was top 5 at home last year. I see no reason to think differently.
Pizza money play:
Jags -3. Jacksonville should have won last week. Watson is awful!
Mono: Saints +6 over Cowboys
Special shout out to Will Levis for screwing up my great Titans pick last week. He finds a way for the Bears to beat him without an offensive TD. Blocked punt not his fault but that pick 6 Mingya!!!
We stay with the NFL this week and back the Saints +6. Both teams come in on the right side of blowouts last week. Carolina didn’t show up and New Orleans made them pay. The Cowboys ran into a Browns team that fielded a QB that looked like he forgot how to play in Deshaun Watson. Dallas looked great in all three phases and the Saints did as well scoring on nine straight possessions. Both teams come in with a ton of confidence and I see a field goal game rather than one decided by a touchdown.
The Cowboys defense balled out last week but some of that had to do with the fact Watson looked completely lost. The Saints offense should have success in the short passing game, which will offset the Cowboys front seven. The Cowboys secondary wasn’t tested last week and that will change this week. The Saints defense had an equally strong performance and will face a similar test. With that being said I think the Cowboys offense is a bit one-dimensional with Zeke as their RB. Outside of Cee Dee the Boys don’t have a clear match-up to exploit. This week tells us more about both teams than Week 1 did. Let’s go with the hot hand. Dating back to last season the Saints have won four of five. The division is wide open and I like Carr to keep the offense rolling enough to keep up with the Cowboys. Cowboys may win but the Saints stay within the number.
Brutal: Oregon State +17 over Oregon
Last week we rode WASHINGTON STATE (-2) to an easy 37-16 win over Texas Tech. This week we are looking at the other PAC-12 survivor, OREGON STATE playing hated! rival Oregon in a renewal of the Civil War, which has been politically corrected to some other benign name that nobody can remember but at least will not offend the very easily offended. This is the 127th year this has been played in the last 130 years.
For reference, the oldest college football, big school rivalries are Minnesota-Wisconsin: 133 games played, North Carolina-Virginia: 128 games played, Auburn-Georgia: 128 games played, and Oregon-Oregon State: 127 games played. This game is under contract for this year, but Oregon may try to back out of future games since they have moved to the Big Ten and many legitimate college football traditions, even this historically important are now on life support.
This match places out to a lot of the same intangibles as our successful Washington State Cougar pick last week. Oregon is 2-0, but the Ducks have not looked great. In week one, Oregon beat Idaho 24-14, in a game that they dominated statistically, but could not put away till the end. They led 14-0, but struggled in the second half on their way to a 10-point victory. We could write this off as typical early season rust except for the fact that the Vandals of Idaho were a 51-point underdog!!!!! There was an actual Moneyline available with some bookmakers that paid over 2000 to one! Would have paid off more for us than Northern Illinois beating NOTRE DAME last week. (Yes!!!! Congratulations head coach Thomas Hammock and the MAC Huskies!) Then last week OREGON (-19) hosted Boise State who is much weaker than normal this season. The Ducks escaped with a 37-34 win on a last second field goal and some suspect home-town clock operator shenanigans and some, ummmm, ...... generous Big Ten officials who really helped their new conference partner with some favorable late game field rulings.
Oh well, the Ducks might just be rusty, ....... a little overrated, ...... or a premium V12 Lamborghini engine that needs a few weeks to warm up. One thing is for sure, the odds-makers still love them, because this week they are a 17-point favorite over their hated in-state rival, the BEAVERS of OREGON STATE. This year, OSU is also 2-0 after first beating a scrappy Idaho State Bengals team 38-15 in a game where they came close to covering the 29-point spread. Last week the Beavers (-5.5) went to SAN DIEGO and shut down the AZTECS 21-0. The SAN DIEGO AZTECS are a tough, traditional defense-first team since the days of Head Coach Rocky Long. We will get a better feel for this squad and see how bad their offense truly is this year after they play CAL (-18.5) on Saturday night, but a 21-point shutout on their home turf is not to be ignored and Oregon State deserves some credit.
Oregon is going to play better as the season unfolds and probably will eventually earn their #9 or better ranking. Oregon has a ton of talent and a ton of Nike money to navigate the new college football universe, but this is a hated, historic rivalry game being played early season in a hostile, sold out Reser Stadium with 38,000 wild, beer & psilocybin infused fans who have circled this date for over a year. There are multiple intangibles here beyond the usual in-state rivalry intensities. There is no way Oregon deserves a three score spread to start this game. I think the BEAVERS are holding a lot of cards here. They will try to control the clock with their physical running game and wear down the Ducks (both Idaho and Boise State were successful running all over Oregon).
This could be a classic, close, rivalry-recruiting slobber-knocker battle. It is the first Oregon road game of the season, their first game against a non-Idaho based university and there is an 80% chance of rain to slow down the Duck passing attack! Better running game, multiple intangibles, probably a lower scoring contest, inclement weather, ..... you have to take the 17 points. I will also be making a few OREGON STATE money-line parlays on the BEAVERS to win this game outright over the traitorous, carpet bagging, home-wrecking-conference killing Ducks.
Official Beaver Fight song: Hail to old OSU!
Watch our men going tearing down the field
Men of Iron, our strength will never yield
Hail! Hail! Hail! Hail!
Hail to old OSU!
Bob: Indiana -3 over UCLA
The novice will look at this line and love UCLA. You have a team that is a traditional power getting three points at home to a team that is a basketball school. Truth, is I don’t think this line is high enough. Indiana is an underrated team that I bet the team total Over for this year. UCLA played one game this year and was very unimpressive with a three-point win over Hawaii. Indiana comes in 2-0 with two blow-out wins. The Hoosiers have outgained their two opponents by average of 557-151 so far this year. More impressive the FIU team they blew out the next week went out and crushed Central Michigan. Both teams come into this game with new coaches. Indiana has the better one in Curt Cignetti.
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