Stone Cold Locks
By Bob Gaughan
2024 record 21-10
2023 Record 82-71-3
2022 Record 68-41-2
2021 record 62-49
2020 record 52-52-4
2019 Record 62-41-2
2018 Record 72-50-3
Total: 417-313-14=57%
MR. OVER/UNDER: Washington -8 over Carolina
Thirteen of the 14 favorites in the NFL won last week, with 11 of them covering the spread. 11 of the 14 games went over, as offenses are now clicking. Tampa Scored 51-points while the O/U was 42.5 for the whole game. Houston scored 41 in a game with an O/U of 39.5. Among the higher scoring teams.is the Washington Commanders, tied with Detroit with 178-points. Rookie QB Jayden Daniels leads the league is passing Completions at 75.3%, and averages 53.7-years per game. They’re hosting Carolina at home this week, after losing a tough game at Baltimore. The Panther’s defense has a number of injuries and has allowed over 33-points a game. The spread is more than a touchdown, but I don’t see Carolina being able to keep up with this Washington offense. I like the Commanders -8.
Man in Stripes: TCU +5.5@ Utah
Sometimes teams rally around the backup QB, when his time comes. In Salt Lake City, I see the opposite happening this Saturday. The season and career of standout QB Cam Rising ended last week, and with it went any chance for the Utes in the college playoffs. After missing all of last year, Rising came back with 1 thing in mind, that was the playoffs, with that put the window, the talk this week has been very doom and gloom for the Utes. Freshman, Micah Bernard will take over, and he's been very erratic in his time behind center. TCU is coming off a bye, it's been tough sledding for the Horn Frogs since they got demolished in the national championship game 2 years ago by Georgia. But, Sonny Dykes is one the best coaches in America and will have his team ready. They have one of the best passing games in the country, and with the points are a very live dog in this matchup. Good luck.
Mono: Seattle +3 over Atlanta
Going Seahawks +3 in Atlanta this weekend. Seattle has lost 3 straight, looking to get back on track. Atlanta has pulled it together winning 3 straight divisional games. Seattle needs to get back on track and I think this is a good spot for them. Atlanta’s defense is suspect and Geno and the Seahawks are coming off an extended break. In a showdown between rookie coaches and veteran QB’s, I’m siding with Geno and his weapons to grind out a close one. Seahawks keep it close and might even win outright.
Brutal: North Texas (+12.5) @ MEMPHIS
The Mean Green from Denton are threatening to win the American Conference this year. They have excelled on offense this year. They are 5-1, 2-0 in conference games and their only loss was in Lubbock to a resurgent Texas Tech. Early in the year they lost 66-21 to Tech, but a one minute, 21 point outburst from the Red Raiders made the final slightly distorted ( a 70 yard bomb TD, a pick six on the next possession and a 10 yard TD run immediately after a kickoff fumble ). That game was a competitive shootout till that point. I certainly do not believe the Memphis Tigers can explode for those kind of points very often.
Memphis is also 5-1; a defense-first team. They lost badly to Navy and we know Navy is good, but not 56 points, almost 600 yards of total offense good. North Texas is too consistent with their balanced offense to have Memphis giving this many points to us in a big conference matchup like this.
We will take Mean Green and the odd number-in-between spread of 12.5. We will take North Texas, the alma mater of Bill Moyers, Phyllis George, Meat Loaf, Larry McMurtry, Pat Boone and Mean Joe Greene!!!
Ottawa RedBlacks @ TORONTO ARGONAUTS (-4.5)
This is essentially a playoff game. The winner cements second place and a home playoff game in the Eastern Division of the CFL. Ottawa is really well coached, and that is why they were winning a lot of games early in the year with a very average talent level team. However, after a great start they are one and five in their last six. Their offense has disappeared. Some key injuries and the clock striking midnight on their lack of explosive plays and players have Ottawa heading into the playoffs on a Dallas Cowboyesque slide.
Toronto was the best team in the CFL last year, ...... till the Eastern Final when 2023 MVP winner and Argo QB Chad Kelly had a complete ummmm, ...... psychological breakdown and the team was blown out by eventual Grey Cup winner Montreal. Then in the off season, Chad continued his unhinged behavior to such an extent that he was suspended for the first half of the season. Chad had problems in college at Clemson and Ole Miss with this type of thing. Unlike Deshaun Watson, this involved only one, solitary female physical-therapist employed by the team. Kelly came back from suspension halfway through the season vowing to behave and stay in therapy; so far, so good, however, on the field the rust really showed. He also had to get used to a completely different roster of skill-position players from last year. It has taken time to develop chemistry. As Kelly got better, the Argos understandably improved as the season wore on.
On September 7, Toronto lost to Ottawa in a hard-hitting game in the national capital. Since then Ottawa has nose-dived and Toronto has gone 4-1. Toronto lost only to their main rival by two points. Hamilton playing desperate on a too-late-in-the-season playoff run that was permanently doomed last week with their elimination. Not coincidently, Chad Kelly has played his best two games of the year as Toronto beat the two best teams in the CFL in the last two weeks (Winnipeg and Montreal). Momentum, momentum, momentum, playing at home, the Argonauts should beat this limping, lost, and languishing Ottawa team by at least a touchdown. The nephew of Jim Kelly and graduate of St. Josephs Collegiate Institute of Tonawanda, New York ....... continues the turnaround.
ARRRRRGOOOOSSS (-4.5)
Bob: Seattle/Atlanta Over 51
In this game you have both teams offensive strengths going up against the defensive weaknesses. In Seattle you have one of the most pass heavy teams in the league.
Geno Smith can cook when he gets time to pass. Receiver DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett can make plays downfield. In Atlanta you have the worst pass rush in the NFL.
The Falcons have only five sacks all year in six games. This should play right into the Seahawks plans. In Atlanta you have an offense that has found it’s stride.
The Falcons have run the ball much better the last few weeks. The Seattle defense is hurting in their front seven with injuries. In their last game most of their defensive line was out.
The total in this game started at 49.5 and has gone up to 51. I think it might continue to go up. The game is in Atlanta so in a dome the weather is not a factor.
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