by Tony Fiorello
ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK - NOVEMBER 17: Head coach Sean McDermott of the Buffalo Bills and head coach Andy Reid of the Kansas City Chiefs shake hands prior to a game between the Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs at Highmark Stadium on November 17, 2024 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Timothy T Ludwig/Getty Images)
Welcome to Conference Championship Weekend. Here at Buffalo Sports Page we will attempt to inform and educate our readers about the upcoming playoff games and what each team might do to emerge victorious.
This season’s AFC Championship Game will take place at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri as the Buffalo Bills will face the Kansas City Chiefs. Here’s what you should know:
KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI - OCTOBER 07: Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs throws a pass to Travis Kelce #87 during the first quarter against the New Orleans Saints at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on October 07, 2024 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images)
CHIEFS’ OFFENSE IS TYPICALLY DANGEROUS, BUT SLOWING A BIT
Andy Reid’s version of the West Coast offense has taken on many forms over the years. In Philadelphia his passing game with quarterbacks Donovan McNabb and Michael Vick was vertical-based to take advantage of their arm strength, conversely with Alex Smith it became conservative and horizontal.
Now with Patrick Mahomes under center it has returned to its downfield version, although their horizontal concepts have increased as of late. The system has also incorporated many college concepts in recent years and heavily relies on the design of the play to get people open. According to former MMQB/SI writer Andy Benoit, “Kansas City’s passing game is unique because it doesn’t depend on wide receivers winning one-on-one battles outside. The scheme relies on route combinations and creating opportunities for tight ends and running backs. This means the throws are more about timing than velocity.
“Reid features presnap motion, misdirection and multi-option reads. Those tactics put a defense on its heels by presenting the illusion of complexity, but they can transition into traditional concepts once the ball is snapped…. (they) aim to isolate specific defenders – often linebackers – present them with run/pass assignment conflicts and also get defenders flowing one way as the ball goes another.”
Some other calling cards of the Chiefs’ include their creative red zone concepts. Reid will concoct unusual formations with screens and shovel passes with motion, and these have set Kansas City apart from the rest of the league for years.
Between 2015 and ‘21 Kansas City employed wide receiver Tyreek Hill, who is perhaps the league’s fastest player and can line up anywhere – out wide, in the backfield and in the slot, where he is especially dangerous on post routes out of trips formations. Following a trade to the Miami Dolphins, Reid and general manager Brett Veach decided to replace him by committee.
Although they don’t boast quite the same speed as Hill does, men like Rashee Rice, Mecole Hardman, Marquise “Hollywood” Brown and rookie Xavier Worthy (who has shown that he can be the third man in trips formations – Hill’s old spot) give the Chiefs a group who can beat anyone vertically and all are used liberally in motion by Reid. Juju Smith-Schuster, Skyy Moore and Justin Watson have also gotten in on the action this year to varying degrees and Reid also likes to give his wideouts reduced splits along the line of scrimmage to use defenders’ leverage against them and present two-way go’s.
Unfortunately for the Chiefs, this group has been banged up all season. Rice, who the offense had shifted its focus to early in the year due to his versatility and ability to pick up yards after the catch, is out for the season following knee surgery and Hardman has also been hurt. Enter former All-Pro DeAndre Hopkins, who was acquired at the trade deadline from the Tennessee Titans.
Hopkins might not be the fastest wideout in football but succeeds with physicality, body control, route-running ability and excellent hands – akin to Hall of Famer Cris Carter. He’s also versatile by being able to align all over the formation and is especially adept on intermediate in-breaking routes over the middle of the field.
Travis Kelce, one of the best talents at his position, is versatile and can also align in different ways in the formation (especially as the lone receiver on the backside in bunch – otherwise known as the boundary ‘X’ receiver). Perhaps the most athletic tight end in football, he can beat most defensive backs and linebackers on many different routes, especially on corners, sticks and crossers, is excellent at creating yards after the catch and has a good feel for finding voids in zone coverage.
Kelce set a record for receiving yards by a tight end with 1,416 in 2020 and continues to remain his usual elite self after passing Jerry Rice for the most receptions in playoff history last year. He also is tied with Rice for the most touchdown catches against one team in playoff annals. Backups Noah Grey, Jody Fortson (out with an injury) and Peyton Hendershot’s roles have expanded as Kansas City has incorporated more formations featuring multiple tight ends over the last two years.
At running back the powerful Isiah Pacheco (a downhill, north-south type of runner), Samaje Perine and Kareem Hunt are adept at hurting teams not just on the ground but through the air as well, especially on screen passes. Pacheco’s offensive snaps have steadily decreased over the last few weeks, however – perhaps he has been slow to recover from an earlier in-season injury.
Those backs and Mahomes operate behind an offensive line that has undergone many changes over the last few years. Injuries and underperformance have seen the Chiefs say goodbye to names like Eric Fisher, Mitchell Schwartz, Austin Reiter, Kelechi Osemele, Orlando Brown Jr., Donovan Smith, Andrew Wylie and hello to new faces like All-Pro Joe Thuney, Creed Humphrey, Trey Smith, Jawaan Taylor, D.J. Humphries and Mike Caliendo. Taylor hasn’t quite worked out so far and because of this Reid has been using his tight ends and backs to help in pass protection more often (Taylor has taken more penalties than anyone in the NFL over the last two years). Thuney has also been moved to left tackle – while he’s been serviceable at that spot, he hasn’t lit the world on fire and Caliendo has been a liability (he can be beaten on stunts by opposing defensive linemen). They also have had a hard time blocking in the run game lately too, as they have shown issues in reaching linebackers after getting past defensive lines.
The widespread comparisons of Mahomes to Brett Favre aren’t unfounded, as the former possesses most of the latter’s attributes – a cannon for an arm, an uncanny ability to extend plays and good mobility and intelligence, plus a willingness to fit passes into tight windows and the ability to manipulate safeties with his eyes. He’s also underrated at using dummy cadences to get defenses to declare their intentions and then setting the pass protection accordingly. But he hasn’t always played the way his coaches want him to.
At times Mahomes shows too much unnecessary movement both in and outside the pocket due to anticipating pressure that isn’t there, sloppy footwork and not playing within the timing and structure of Reid’s attack. He also sometimes doesn’t take what defenses give him coverage-wise and forces plays down the field that don’t need to be.
When this happens, Reid usually gets Mahomes to settle down by incorporating more short and intermediate concepts like “smash” and “flood” – resulting in him being more decisive and his offense becoming more rhythm-based and less vertical. His mechanics also need touching up at times – especially by holding the ball higher so he can throw quicker and fixing his lower body base.
Two years ago the Chiefs’ offense was their usual lethal selves, ending 2022 first in total yards, points scored and passing and 20th in rushing. Last year they fell off a bit – 15th in points (21.8, the lowest in the Mahomes era), ninth in total yards, sixth in passing and 19th in rushing are usually not bad numbers for anyone but given Kansas City’s lofty standards they should have been better.
It’s been more of the same in 2024 as they ended the regular season 15th in scoring, 17th in total yards, 14th in passing. But they’re also 22nd in rushing and red zone efficiency, and most of their wins (11) have come in one score games (they’ve won each of their last 16 one-possession games, the longest such streak ever).
Also their plus-59 scoring differential is 62 points worse than any other 15-win team to ever play the game, and was just 11th in the NFL this year. The Chiefs don’t turn the ball over either – Mahomes hasn’t turned it over since Week 11 against Buffalo, the longest active streak among the four starting quarterbacks. It’s the third longest streak by a quarterback going into a playoff game all-time.
KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI - JANUARY 18: Chris Jones #95 of the Kansas City Chiefs pressures the pocket as Laremy Tunsil #78 of the Houston Texans blocks during the first half of the AFC Divisional playoff game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on January 18, 2025 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Aaron M. Sprecher/Getty Images)
KANSAS CITY’S DEFENSE STILL CREATIVE
From 2013 through 2018 the Chiefs’ defense was conducted by Bob Sutton, a former longtime assistant with the New York Jets. During the first three seasons Sutton applied his scheme in Kansas City the Chiefs had an upper-echelon unit, but between 2016-18 it took a nosedive – bottoming out in ’18 by finishing the regular season in the bottom-half of the league in nearly every statistical category.
Reid promptly replaced Sutton with one of his old assistants from Philadelphia in Steve Spagnuolo. “Spags”, a former head coach with the Rams and Super Bowl-winning defensive coordinator with the New York Giants, implemented a 4-3 system characterized by cleverly disguised five-man overload blitzes, multiple coverages with press technique by the cornerbacks and safety rotations before the snap.
The biggest key to Kansas City’s defense used to be former Arizona Cardinal and Houston Texan Tyrann Mathieu. Mathieu is one of the most versatile back-end defenders in football, as evidenced by his many snaps at slot cornerback, box safety, nickel/dime linebacker, free safety and outside cornerback. His athleticism and intelligence were valuable to the Chiefs – so valuable to the point where he was mainly used as the team’s middle hole defender in Cover Two zone and not a linebacker. But Mathieu left in free agency for the New Orleans Saints two years ago along with fellow safety Daniel Sorenson, and in their place now are ex-Texan Justin Reid (who matches up well with tight ends) and Bryan Cook.
The Chiefs also underwent a makeover at cornerback. Veterans L’Jarius Sneed, Charvarius Ward, Mike Hughes, Rashad Fenton and DeAndre Baker are gone and that position is now held down by Trent McDuffie, Joshua Williams, Jaylen Watson and Chamarri Conner. This group is mainly used by Spagnuolo in dime packages (they utilize it at the highest rate in the NFL) with McDuffie and Conner being able to line up both in the slot and on the outside. Conner can also play safety, and besides their favored man coverages “Spags” likes to use zone-blitzes with Cover Four principles out of dime.
The Chiefs’ defensive line is the most talented part of this unit. All-Pro Chris Jones is one of the best defensive linemen in the league and is their linchpin thanks to his combination of burst and hand usage off the line of scrimmage. Ex-Patriot Josh Uche (who has surprising power for his size with quickness and coverage ability), Derrick Nnadi, Charles Omenihu, Tershawn Wharton, Mike Danna and George Karlaftis are the team’s other contributors in their front four and all are versatile. At linebacker Kansas City employs Nick Bolton – who is their best second-level defender – Drue Tranquill and Leo Chenal. Bolton is smart and athletic, and Tranquill excels in zone coverage.
Over the last few years the results from Spags’ defense were uneven, ranging anywhere from great to good to mediocre in multiple categories. Although 18th against the run and 27th in takeaways, his defense last season was sublime ranking second in points allowed (17.3, the lowest of any Reid-coached team since the 2004 Philadelphia Eagles), second in total yards given up, fourth against the pass and second in sacks. The Chiefs also set a record for the most contests in a season allowing less than 28 points with 20 such games.
This year Kansas City is fourth in points allowed, ninth in total yards surrendered and eighth against the run. But they’re just 14th in takeaways, 18th versus the pass and in sacks. Additionally their blitz rate is fifth-best in the NFL (35.6) and the Chiefs’ pressure rate is 10th – but when they don’t send extra rushers they have the third-worst pressure rate.
ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK - JANUARY 19: Von Miller #40 of the Buffalo Bills recovers a fumble against the Baltimore Ravens during the second quarter during the AFC Divisional Playoff at Highmark Stadium on January 19, 2025 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)
BUFFALO’S DEFENSE USUALLY ELITE, BUT UNDERGOING CHANGES IN 2024
For most of head coach Sean McDermott’s time in Buffalo, the Bills’ defense has been one of the league’s best. Points allowed (fourth in the NFL in that category in 2023), total yards per game allowed (ninth), passing yards given up (seventh), rushing yards surrendered (15th), takeaways (third), interceptions (tied for fourth) and sacks (fourth, tied for second-most in their history with the 2014 team) have generally been the categories that the Bills have excelled at over the years, with last season’s sack total being the best in the McDermott era.
2024, however, has been a year of transition for the Bills on defense. Due to age and salary cap complications, out the door are longtime veterans such as Jordan Poyer and Tyrel Dodson (Miami Dolphins), Tre’Davious White (Baltimore Ravens), Leonard Floyd (San Francisco 49ers, who had 10.5 sacks a year ago – the most of any Bill since Lorenzo Alexander in 2016), Linval Joseph (Dallas Cowboys), Tim Settle (Houston Texans), Kaylon “Poona” Ford (Los Angeles Chargers), Dane Jackson (Carolina Panthers) and Shaq Lawson.
Especially when one includes names from the past on the defensive line such as Kyle Williams, Marcel Dareus, Jerry Hughes, Mario Addison, Star Lotulelei, Carlos “Boogie” Basham, Trent Murphy, Vernon Butler, Justin Zimmer, Efe Obada and Harrison Phillips, that’s a lot of turnover over the last eight years – none more so than this past offseason. The answer, according to McDermott, general manager Brandon Beane and new defensive coordinator Bobby Babich (who has called plays this season for the first time) is youth and cheap veterans to provide cost-effective depth (Buffalo’s made it to the AFC title game with the third-most dead money on the salary cap in the league and have used just 71 percent of the cap).
Some of those younger players – albeit young veterans since they are in their fourth and fifth professional seasons, respectively – who have been asked to take on a greater role include Greg Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa, who can line up both on the edge and go inside in passing situations. Da’Quan Jones, perhaps their best run-stuffing lineman, is back healthy after tearing a pectoral muscle against Jacksonville last October and is effective on T-T stunts with Ed Oliver, an excellent gap penetrator.
They are backed up by versatile free agent pickups Austin Johnson (who came from the Chargers after stints with the Tennessee Titans and the New York Giants), Dawuane Smoot (Jacksonville Jaguars) and Casey Toohill (Washington Commanders) along with rookies DeWayne Carter and Javon Solomon. Toohill is a special teamer who reminds some of a more athletic Trent Murphy due to his length, height and movement skills while Solomon has been compared to a younger Elvis Dumervil with his lack of height yet long arms and strength and explosiveness off the edge. Carter and Smoot, while healthy now, were both injured early in the season which led the Bills to bring back two familiar faces in Jordan Phillips and Quinton Jefferson.
Over the years Buffalo has been inconsistent in two areas – creating a consistent pass rush (last year not withstanding) and, from time to time, stopping the run. The run issues are mainly caused by poor tackling (their missed and broken tackle percentage has been among the highest in the NFL over the years), a lack of gap integrity, inefficient communication and an inability to handle motion (which causes issues with leverage, spacing and run fits). They also gave up 4.6 yards a carry on inside runs last year, 30th in the NFL. Another issue was the Bills giving up tying or go-ahead drives in the final two minutes in four of their six losses last year – meaning they struggled to close out games (they did go 6-3 in one-possession games this year).
Beyond improving against the run, the Bills had also lacked an elite pass rusher off the edge who could command double teams on a consistent basis since Mario Williams was employed 10 years ago. With that in mind, two years ago Beane signed future Hall of Famer Von Miller. But Miller suffered a torn ACL after putting up eight sacks in 11 games and missed the first four games of last season while recovering on the PUP list. He’s healthy now and was on a snap count as he shook off the rust (although by his own admission he shouldn’t have played in 2023) but has provided flashes of his old All-Pro ability and speed – while his sack total isn’t high, he’s created numerous pressures as evidenced by his pass rush win rate.
Schematically the Bills’ defense mostly relies on basic zones after the snap (they’re usually among the top units in the NFL in usage of coverages with two high safeties such as Cover Two, Four and Six, although they used more single-high man coverages against the Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Rams, Detroit Lions and Baltimore Ravens so they could put more bodies in the box to stop the run and to limit communication) but before the snap it is complex. Safety rotations to disguise their intentions keep opposing quarterbacks guessing and selective pressure looks at the line of scrimmage and coverage exchanges are the team’s calling cards.
Those blitz looks usually happen in the A-gaps with the smaller, but smart, speedy and athletic Matt Milano and Terrell Bernard (who replaced the departed Tremaine Edmunds last year) to confuse opposing offensive lines and quarterbacks, but Buffalo rarely sends five or more pass rushers – their favorite blitz tactic besides A-gappers are four-man zone exchanges. In the regular season they were 27th in blitz rate but Buffalo blitzed Lamar Jackson on 15 out of 31 dropbacks (48.4%) last week, their fifth-highest blitz rate in a game under McDermott and their highest in a game since Week 15 of 2021, according to Next Gen Stats.
Bernard has become a good blitzer and coverage ‘backer – his 6.5 sacks in 2023 were the most by an off-the-ball linebacker in Bills annals and he became the first NFL player since Seth Joyner in 1991 with six sacks, three picks and three fumble recoveries in a season. He and Milano are also adept at being used to spy quarterbacks – they spied Jackson on every third down a week ago.
For the second straight year, Milano suffered a major injury – this time a torn bicep – but is now back and presumably healthy. When he missed time earlier this year, backup Dorian Williams picked up the slack. The Bills struggled to defend the run well last year because of a lack of experience by Williams – he displayed flashes of quickness and burst but was slow to key and diagnose at the line of scrimmage. He also took many false steps and needed to process better while in coverage, but is athletic, long and fluid, and has improved with more experience game by game. He had increased playing time last week to stop Baltimore’s running game, as evidenced by being on the field for a third of Buffalo’s snaps.
Additional depth comes from Baylon Spector (currently injured) and rookie Joe Andreessen. Andreessen, a University at Buffalo product who hails from nearby Lancaster, showed excellent diagnostic skills at the line of scrimmage in the preseason while also displaying strong hands, a quick downhill trigger that allows him to shoot gaps well and some speed and range. It helps that the rookie played in a similar role as Milano while in college.
The Bills mainly utilize nickel personnel, as evidenced by Buffalo using five defensive backs between 90 and 100 percent of their snaps since 2020. They used more dime personnel after Milano’s injury last year with three safeties to help offset his loss in pass coverage (dime made a comeback in the red zone last week out of a 3-2-6 look) and that setup featured Micah Hyde and ex-Ram Taylor Rapp on the back end and Poyer near the line of scrimmage.
The Bills’ safety position is now manned by Rapp, who is better playing near the line of scrimmage (but is out this week with a hip injury), the rangy and physical but inconsistent Damar Hamlin, veteran Kareem Jackson – who brings a wealth of experience and can play in the box or on the back end – Hyde and rookie Cole Bishop, who is an underrated and cerebral athlete. Hyde (who recently re-signed with the team after weighing retirement) and Jackson are on the practice squad.
At the boundary cornerback spots replacing White and Jackson are Christian Benford and Rasul Douglas and they are backed up by the tall and physical Ja’Marcus Ingram and Kaiir Elam, who has underwhelmed so far as a pro. Douglas, an ex-Green Bay Packer and Philadelphia Eagle, has great size and length, is versatile and a gambler – he can take chances because he understands route combinations very well (he led the NFL in takeaways last year with six after he was acquired). Slot corner Taron Johnson remains elite – especially in in the quickness and tackling departments – and he’s backed up by tweener Cam Lewis, who can also fill in at safety.
2024 saw the Bills end the regular season 11th in points allowed, 12th against the run, 17th in total yards, tied for 18th in sacks and 24th versus the pass. They were also 29th in third down percentage, gave up the most completions, yards and touchdowns in the NFL on screen plays and allowed nine touchdowns on plays of four seconds or longer – the most in the league according to Cover 1’s Eric Turner. However, they were third in takeaways and were fifth-best in allowing plays of 20 yards or more.
Buffalo also held the Broncos to just 42 offensive plays two weeks ago – the least ever for a Bills playoff opponent and the least for any playoff team since 2011.
ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK - JANUARY 19: Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills looks to pass during an NFL Football game against the Baltimore Ravens at Highmark Stadium on January 19, 2025 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images)
BILLS’ UPPER-ECHELON OFFENSE ALSO RETOOLING IN 2024
For five consecutive seasons, the Bills have boasted one of the NFL’s elite offenses for the first time since the K-Gun was running roughshod over the league more than 30 years ago. Led by quarterback Josh Allen’s improved processing skills, ball placement, patience within the pocket and touch on passes and a cadre of gifted pass-catchers, those factors allowed Buffalo to become one of the most feared attacks in pro football (last year Allen was fourth in passing yards and tied for fifth in passing touchdowns while tying for third in rushing scores – leading the league in total yards and touchdowns in the process. This year Allen was ninth in passer rating and rushing touchdowns and tied for seventh in passing scores).
In 2023 the Bills were sixth in scoring, fourth in total yards, seventh in rushing and eighth in passing. They were also fifth in red zone efficiency, yet their offense performed poorly over a six-game stretch where they averaged just 20.5 points per game. It resulted in then-offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey getting the boot in favor of quarterbacks coach and former Carolina Panthers play-caller Joe Brady.
Like their defensive counterparts, the Bills are going through changes on this side of the ball because of age, the salary cap and a new coordinator. With Brady taking over the role full-time, the biggest philosophical question on offense for Buffalo will be how to retain elements of what made them so good in the first place while adding in new and fresh concepts.
Between 2018 and last year, Buffalo’s offense was an Erhardt-Perkins system brought in from New England by then-coordinator Brian Daboll. It was built upon concepts involving option and crossing routes from the slot, downfield routes from the outside, run-pass options (especially in the red zone), designed quarterback runs to take advantage of Allen’s mobility and alignments that create favorable matchups and some trick plays with jet/orbit motion and sweeps. It was mostly out of “11” personnel groupings (one back, one tight end and three wide receivers) and “10” personnel (one back, no tight ends, four receivers) – and would also go no-huddle from time to time to limit the opposition’s defensive calls.
The Bills’ multi-receiver sets were traditionally their offensive calling card. In 2020 they used four wide receivers or more 155 times – the second-most in the NFL at the time – and they utilized someone in motion on 43 percent of their offensive snaps, a huge increase from their 25 percent rate in 2019. Daboll, now the head coach of the New York Giants, also called for a passing play on 64 percent of their first downs, according to ESPN Stats and Information (no team with a winning record in the prior 20 years did it more than Buffalo) and that rate continued in 2021 and ’22 with “11” personnel used on nearly three-quarters of their plays.
Daboll’s successor, Ken Dorsey, got away from some of those concepts and tried to rely on the talent at his disposal winning one-on-one matchups instead of having the scheme help them get open. Once Brady was promoted, the Bills returned to them. He also included more under-center formations and play-action (which can still stand to increase after being a top-four team in run-fakes in 2020 and ’21), pre-snap shifts, motions and designed passes to running backs and route combinations with defined reads for Allen so he can play within timing and structure.
Brady got his start in the NFL working for the New Orleans Saints and then-coach Sean Payton. Payton himself came from a melting pot of a background including stints running the Erhardt-Perkins scheme for Bill Parcells in Dallas and learning the West Coast offense from Jim Fassel in New York with the Giants and from Jon Gruden during their one-year stint together in Philadelphia in 1997, so Brady will bring a similar approach to the table while likely keeping some things the same in Buffalo.
Their biggest transaction on offense in the spring was trading the aging Stefon Diggs to Houston. Diggs, while never a burner on the outside, was an exceptional route runner who specialized in making contested catches and operated well out of bunch and stack formations – leading him to re-write many of the Bills’ single season receiving records.
In addition to Diggs, Buffalo has let veterans like Gabriel Davis, John Brown, Emmanuel Sanders, Cole Beasley, Isaiah McKenzie, Jamison Crowder, Trent Sherfield and Deonte Harty walk over the years. Many of them were productive, but nothing can last forever – hence the overhaul of the Bills’ wide receiver room in 2024.
The Payton offense is built through having big, physical targets who can get open over the middle of the field, especially on deep in-cuts, or “dig” routes. Payton has employed such players in those roles before like Marques Colston, Jimmy Graham, Michael Thomas and Courtland Sutton, and the drafting of rookie Keon Coleman from Florida State fits the bill for Brady. Coleman, whose game evoked comparisons to Colston, Brandon Marshall and Anquan Boldin coming out of college, brings size and physicality to the boundary ‘X’ position with good body control and strong hands to make contested catches and has some run after the catch ability. He does need to work on his speed, quickness and ability to beat press coverage, but in time he may improve in those areas.
While not a burner at the position (like free agent pickup Mack Hollins, who has similar skills), Coleman will be accentuated by speed in the form of Curtis Samuel, a poor-man’s Mecole Hardman who can line up both in the slot and outside the numbers and take handoffs. That speed was needed since Buffalo was just 28th in the NFL in plays of 20 yards or more last season according to Trumedia, and shifty third-year pass-catcher Khalil Shakir returns to man the slot with his quickness, sure hands and savviness to get open versus zone coverage.
This group had been struggling to beat man coverage at the beginning of the season, and while Brady used more ‘rub’ concepts and bunch and stack alignments to help in this regard Buffalo was lacking a true replacement for Diggs. Enter five-time Pro Bowler Amari Cooper, who was acquired from the Cleveland Browns in exchange for a third-round draft pick in 2025. Cooper, who is making less than a million dollars this season, fits what the Bills need both financially and on the field – boasting size, speed, excellent route-running and vertical ability and is deadly on in-breaking patterns over the middle.
Tight end Dawson Knox is joined by second-year man Dalton Kincaid, and their diverse skillsets should allow the Bills to throw curveballs at opponents with multiple tight end sets. Kincaid lived up to the hype with 73 receptions a year ago, the most of any Bills rookie and surpassed Pete Metzelaars for the most catches by a Bills tight end in one season. He also became the fourth rookie tight end since 1960 with 70 or more catches in a year.
The Bills’ offensive line is composed of Dion Dawkins, David Edwards, Connor McGovern (taking over at center for the departed Mitch Morse), O’Cyrus Torrence and Spencer Brown. This crew – which last year became the first unit to start every game in a regular season for Buffalo since 1989 – along with fullback Reggie Gilliam has mainly executed outside zone runs along with zone-reads, pin-and-pull concepts, traps (especially with Dawkins as the puller), counters, sweeps, split inside zone/duo and sprint draw plays sprinkled in for running back James Cook. Cook, who boasts great vision and burst, is backed up by physical rookie Ray Davis and ex-Jet Ty Johnson provides valuable depth with his receiving skills.
The starting front five had been iffy in providing push in the running game and in pass protection over the last couple of years but has since become a strength. In the past, most of the team’s rushing production came from Allen’s legs and few came from their backs – the Bills’ rushing attempts per game in 2022, 18.2, was last in the NFL but that number jumped to the highest in the NFL after Brady was promoted. In 2023 Allen was taken down just 24 times overall in 17 regular season outings, the best mark in pro football, and the team again led the league in least sacks allowed with just 14 this year (tied for the sixth-least since 2000).
Buffalo has also carried over their trend of using an extra offensive lineman to help in the running game. Now that Edwards has moved into the starting lineup, that extra guy is Alec Anderson, and the Bills had the highest rate of offensive snaps with six linemen on the field – with most of them being called runs, and were near the top of the NFL in yards per carry and yards per play with six linemen.
Another area the Bills needed to clean up is protecting the ball. Over the last two years they were one the league’s sloppiest teams – Allen had 14 interceptions and 13 fumbles in 2022 and Allen led the NFL with 18 interceptions last year. This year Allen cut down on his interception total significantly with just six – a sign of progress in this regard (Allen became the third signal caller in NFL history to start a season with 10 touchdowns and no picks through his team’s first seven games).
In fact, the Bills tied the league record for fewest turnovers in a season with just eight (with the 2019 Saints). They became the first team ever with less than 15 sacks allowed and fewer than 15 turnovers in the same season. Buffalo ended the 2024 regular season second in points scored, 10th in total yards and ninth in rushing and passing, and became the first team to ever have 30 passing and 30 rushing touchdowns in one season. They, along with the Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Commanders, were also the top four teams in the NFL on fourth down conversion rate.
While punter Sam Martin and kicker Tyler Bass have been excellent in the past, Bass has been a bit shaky lately. When Martin was named the NFL’s Special Teams Player of the Month in December 2023 – the first Bills punter to do so since Brian Moorman in November 2006 – and Bass collected the same honor earlier in the year, it was the first time both Bills specialists have won the award in one season.
But Bass’ field goal percentage took a dip last year and he hasn’t been great in 2024. To improve he will need to get over whatever is impeding him, but he did hit a franchise-record 61-yard field goal to beat Miami and is eight-for-eight on field goals in the last minute of the fourth quarter or overtime in his career.
McDermott and Brady cost themselves a win against the Texans while trying to throw three successive times within their own three-yard line with less than a minute to go and no timeouts. With Houston having all three of their timeouts, three straight runs would have forced Houston to burn them to get the ball back – meaning they wouldn’t have had one to use to stop the clock to set up a game-winning field goal, which happened. According to ESPN, the Bills became the only team in the last 45 years to be tied or winning in the last minute of the game, inside their own five-yard line and threw three straight passes.
They also botched three situations against the Rams – declining a penalty midway through the game that likely would have forced L.A. to punt, calling a running play when trying to tie the game late (and wasting a timeout in the process) and having just nine men on the field on the final play when trying to return a punt. They’ll need to learn from these miscues going forward.
ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK - JANUARY 19: James Cook #4 of the Buffalo Bills runs with the ball during an NFL Football game against the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium on January 19, 2025 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images)
12 STATS TO MUSE OVER
· The Bills have compiled a road winning percentage of .653 (32-17) since 2019. Conversely, since 2020 Buffalo has the best home record in the NFL – 42-9 including playoffs – and the Bills also have 13 straight home wins, the second-longest streak in team annals behind a 15-game stretch between 1990-91. They went undefeated at home this year for the first time since ’90.
· According to Trumedia, the Bills faced man coverage on 32.7 percent of their snaps last year – the most in the NFL. However, heavy usage of man coverage isn’t foreign to the Bills’ offense. It’s been a staple against them over the last five years (48 percent in 2019, first, 35 in ’20, fifth, 33.3 in ’21, fourth and 29.3 in ’22, fifth), and it’s been no different in 2024 as they have gone against man coverage on one of the highest figures in the NFL.
· Buffalo also faced eight-man boxes 32 percent of the time, the most in the NFL according to Cover 1’s Erik Turner. It’s a stark contrast to the last four years in which they went against them 16 percent of the time in 2020 (32nd), 18.6 in ’21 (27th), 20.4 in ’22 (20th) and 19.9 in ’23 (19th).
· Miller is vying to be the second player to win a Super Bowl with three different teams (Matt Millen was the first).
· The Bills have scored 30 points or more 13 total times in 2024 including playoffs and have become the highest scoring team in franchise history. They’ve won seven games by 20-plus points (a franchise record).
· Buffalo tied the franchise record for wins in a season with 13 and are 17-5 all-time at home in postseason play. They also have the most wins in a seven-year span without reaching the Super Bowl with 83.
· According to CBS Sports the Bills are the first team since 1960 to not lose the turnover battle through their first 19 games, including playoffs.
· According to Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer, the Chiefs are the first team since the 1994 Dallas Cowboys to get back to a conference title game after back-to-back Super Bowl wins. It’s the closest anyone’s gotten to a three-peat in 30 years.
· Sunday will be the fourth playoff meeting between Allen and Mahomes, tied with Terry Bradshaw and Ken Stabler, Brett Favre and Steve Young and Tom Brady and Joe Flacco – the only other quarterback matchup to happen more times in postseason play is Peyton Manning and Tom Brady (five times). Mahomes and the Chiefs are 3-0, however, in their prior matchups and Reid is 6-0 against his former assistant coaches in the playoffs.
· Overall it’s the ninth time each team has met since 2020, and each team has won four games. It’s the first time two teams have met four times in a five-year span in the postseason since Green Bay and San Francisco played each other four years in a row from 1995-98.
· Sunday will also be the 39th playoff game for the Bills since the merger in 1970 and the sixth versus Kansas City – more than any other opponent (Bills-Chiefs is the second-most common conference title matchup all-time – four – behind San Francisco and Dallas, who had six).
· The Bills will attempt to win the fifth AFC Championship in their history (seven including their two AFL titles in 1964 and ’65) and win their first road playoff game since the 1992 AFC title game in Miami. They’ve gone 0-7 since.
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