by Tony Fiorello
MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA - SEPTEMBER 12: Head coach Sean McDermott of the Buffalo Bills looks on during the third quarter of the game against the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium on September 12, 2024 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images)
Welcome to Week Three of the 2024 NFL season. Here at Buffalo Sports Page we will attempt to inform and educate our readers about the Buffalo Bills’ upcoming opponent and what each team might do to emerge victorious.
The Bills’ third game of 2024 will take place at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York as they face the Jacksonville Jaguars. Here’s what you should know:
JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA - SEPTEMBER 15: Trevor Lawrence #16 of the Jacksonville Jaguars throws a pass during the second half against the Cleveland Browns at TrEver Bank Stadium on September 15, 2024 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by Mike Carlson/Getty Images)
JAGS’ OFFENSE SCUFFLING ALONG
Before the beginning of the 2021 season, the Jacksonville Jaguars made a bold coaching hire in Urban Meyer. Meyer, who possessed the third-highest winning percentage among coaches in NCAA history, rolled into Duval County owning three national championship rings from his days with the University of Florida and Ohio State, and had garnered respect within the coaching community for his spread-based, power-running offensive approach.
The problem with Meyer, however, was twofold. First, he had never coached in the NFL before so it was going to take time for him to get used to – he had been fond of saying that being in the pros was like “playing against Alabama every week”. Unlike college football where there are some pushovers, every team in the NFL possesses good players. Secondly, infamy seemed to follow Meyer around, as he dealt with numerous off-the-field scandals everywhere he went (some he created himself), and they carried over to the pros – so much so to where he lost credibility within the Jaguars’ locker room and costing himself his job.
To correct this error, owner Shad Khan and general manager Trent Baalke hired former Philadelphia Eagles coach Doug Pederson. Pederson, who led the City of Brotherly Love to their first Super Bowl title in 2017, has brought respectability back to the Jaguars and is looking to win another championship.
The Pederson offense – a chip off the old block from his mentor, Andy Reid – is a West Coast-style unit that is built off misdirection concepts, quick underneath throws, screens, bootlegs, run-pass options and occasional downfield route combinations. He has a solid triggerman for this attack in Trevor Lawrence, the quarterback taken from Clemson with the first overall selection in 2021’s draft.
The mobile and accurate Lawrence was touted as the most pro-ready signal caller in years but went through the usual growing pains as a rookie. 2022 was a complete turnaround as Pederson tailored his system to Lawrence while also giving him defined primary reads, and the Jaguars won the AFC South with a 9-8 record.
But since those early signs of promise the Jaguars have taken a nosedive. Jacksonville has lost their last seven regular season games going back to last year– blowing the AFC South lead to Houston in the process – and Lawrence has struggled as well. He’s turned the ball over 10 times during the streak, which is tied for the most in the league in that timeframe and has been sacked at the second-highest rate in the NFL.
Additionally, Lawrence’s mechanics have taken a turn for the worse. His delivery is elongated so he misses some easy throws with a good but not great arm, and when Lawrence has bodies flying around him he rushes himself because he needs to take big steps in the pocket due to his long legs.
The Jags do have talent at the skill positions supporting Lawrence. Former college teammate Travis Etienne was also taken by Jacksonville in 2021 to add some explosiveness to their backfield and he and Tank Bigsby (who is questionable with a shoulder ailment) are a classic thunder and lightning combination. They have shown to be effective while running behind formations with multiple tight ends.
Lawrence’s targets in the passing game have the highest drop rate in the NFL through two weeks (15.2 percent, per PFF) but they can hurt opposing secondaries. Christian Kirk, an ex-Arizona Cardinal, provides speed and refined route running ability and can make contributions out of the slot. The other two wideouts in Pederson’s offense are rookie Brian Thomas Jr., who has flashed length and vertical ability, and the physical but inconsistent Gabriel Davis was imported from Buffalo. Versatile tight Evan Engram completes the pass-catching threats but is out with a hamstring injury.
The Jags have an offensive line that isn’t very athletic or powerful – save for tackle Cam Robinson and guard Brandon Scherff. The rest of this unit is composed of ex-Bill Mitch Morse, Ezra Cleveland and Anton Harrison.
Through two games Jacksonville has averaged just 15 points a game (tied for fourth-worst), their red zone offense has struggled to the tune of a 43 percent conversion rate and they’re just 28th on third downs.
JACKSONVILLE, FL - SEPTEMBER 15: Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson (4) scrambles for positive yardage as Jacksonville Jaguars defensive end Josh Hines-Allen (41) trails behind during the game between the Cleveland Browns and the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, September 15, 2024 at TrEverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Fla. (Photo by Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
JACKSONVILLE DEFENSE BOASTS GOOD FRONT BUT STRUGGLING ON BACK END
After underachieving on this side of the ball over the last two years, Pederson showed former defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell the door in favor of ex-New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons play-caller Ryan Nielsen. Nielsen brings a different approach than Caldwell – his scheme features primarily man coverage (so far they lead the NFL in deployment of that tactic) with lots of Cover One, Cover One Robber (with a post safety in the deep middle and a second taking away the intermediate level) and Cover Two Man.
The Jaguars boast a speedy pass-rushing duo in former first round picks Josh Hines-Allen (who enjoyed a breakout season a year ago) and Travon Walker. They are joined by former San Francisco 49er Arik Armstead and Davon Hamilton up the middle. Foyesade Olukun – who is an excellent run stopper – and Chad Muma man the linebacker position.
Jacksonville’s men in the secondary include Tyson Campbell at cornerback (he’s out with a hamstring problem) along with Ronald Darby, Montaric Brown and Jarrian Jones, and rangy safeties Andre Cisco and Darnell Savage (who is out with a quad injury). Veteran Tre Flowers can match up with tight ends.
So far the Jags have done well in some categories but poorly in others. They’re seventh in yards-per-carry allowed and tied for eighth in points allowed, but have allowed the second-most plays of 20 yards or more, are 29th against the pass and are 26th in red zone defense.
MIAMI GARDENS, FL - SEPTEMBER 12: Von Miller #40 of the Buffalo Bills rushes the passer during an NFL football game against the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium on September 12, 2024 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images)
BUFFALO’S DEFENSE USUALLY ELITE, BUT UNDERGOING CHANGES IN 2024
For most of head coach Sean McDermott’s time in Buffalo, the Bills’ defense has been one of the league’s best. Points allowed (fourth in the NFL in that category in 2023), total yards per game allowed (ninth), passing yards given up (seventh), rushing yards surrendered (15th), takeaways (third), interceptions (tied for fourth) and sacks (fourth, tied for second-most in their history with the 2014 team) have generally been the categories that the Bills have excelled at over the years, with last season’s sack total being the best in the McDermott era.
2024, however, will be a year of transition for the Bills on defense. Due to age and salary cap complications, out the door are longtime veterans such as Jordan Poyer (Dolphins), Micah Hyde, Tre’Davious White (Los Angeles Rams), Leonard Floyd (San Francisco 49ers, who had 10.5 sacks a year ago – the most of any Bill since Lorenzo Alexander in 2016), Jordan Phillips and Linval Joseph (Dallas Cowboys), Shaq Lawson, Tim Settle (Houston Texans), Kaylon “Poona” Ford (Los Angeles Chargers), Tyrel Dodson (Seattle Seahawks) and Dane Jackson (Carolina Panthers).
Including names from the past such as Kyle Williams, Jerry Hughes, Mario Addison, Star Lotulelei, Carlos “Boogie” Basham and Harrison Phillips, that’s a lot of turnover over the last eight years – none more so than this past offseason. The answer, according to McDermott, general manager Brandon Beane and new defensive coordinator Bobby Babich (who will get the opportunity to call plays this season) is youth and cheap veterans to provide cost-effective depth.
Some of those younger players – albeit young veterans since they are in their fourth and fifth professional seasons, respectively – who will be asked to take on a greater role include Greg Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa. Da’Quan Jones, perhaps their best run-stuffing lineman, is back healthy after tearing a pectoral muscle against Jacksonville last October and is effective on T-T stunts with Ed Oliver, an excellent gap penetrator.
They will be backed up by versatile free agent pickups Austin Johnson (who comes from the Chargers after stints with Tennessee and the Giants), Dawuane Smoot (Jacksonville) and Casey Toohill (Washington) along with rookies DeWayne Carter and Javon Solomon. Toohill is a core special teamer who reminds some of a more athletic Trent Murphy due to his length, height and movement skills while Solomon has been compared to a younger Elvis Dumervil with his lack of height yet long arms and strength and explosiveness off the edge.
Over the years Buffalo has been inconsistent in two areas – creating a consistent pass rush (last year not withstanding) and, from time to time, stopping the run. These issues are mainly caused by poor tackling (their missed and broken tackle percentage has been among the highest in the NFL over the years), a lack of gap integrity and a lack of versatility along the defensive line. They also gave up 4.6 yards a carry on inside runs, 30th in the NFL. Another issue was the Bills giving up tying or go-ahead drives in the final two minutes in four of their six losses last year – meaning they struggled to close out games.
Beyond improving against the run, the Bills had also lacked an elite pass rusher off the edge who could command double teams on a consistent basis since Mario Williams was employed 10 years ago. With this in mind, two years ago Beane signed future Hall of Famer Von Miller. But Miller suffered a torn ACL after putting up eight sacks in 11 games and missed the first four games of last season while recovering on the PUP list. He’s back now and was on a snap count as he shook off the rust (although by his own admission he shouldn’t have played) but has provided a flash of his old All-Pro ability and speed with sacks against Arizona and Miami.
Schematically the Bills’ defense mostly relies on basic zones after the snap (they’re usually among the top units in the NFL in usage of coverages with two high safeties such as Cover Two, Four and Six) but before the snap it is complex – safety rotations to disguise their intentions keep opposing quarterbacks guessing and selective pressure looks at the line of scrimmage and coverage exchanges are the team’s calling cards.
Those blitz looks usually happen in the A-gaps with the smaller, but smart, speedy and athletic Matt Milano and Terrell Bernard (who replaced the departed Tremaine Edmunds last year) to confuse opposing offensive lines and quarterbacks, but Buffalo rarely sends five or more pass rushers – their favorite blitz tactic besides A-gappers are four-man zone exchanges. Bernard has become a good blitzer and coverage ‘backer – his 6.5 sacks in 2023 were the most by an off-the-ball linebacker in Bills annals and he became the first NFL player since Seth Joyner in 1991 with six sacks, three picks and three fumble recoveries in a season.
But for the second straight year, Milano is out for the foreseeable future after suffering a major injury – this time a torn bicep –which means backup Dorian Williams will need to pick up the slack. The Bills struggled to defend the run well last year because of a lack of experience by Williams – he’s shown flashes of quickness and burst but was slow to key and diagnose at the line of scrimmage. He also took many false steps and needs to process better while in coverage, but is athletic, long and fluid – which should bode well for his future. Bernard is also out after sustaining a pectoral injury against Miami, which will lead to Baylon Spector getting the starting nod this week.
Should Williams or Spector continue to struggle, rookie Joe Andreessen could replace them. Andreessen, a University at Buffalo product who hails from nearby Lancaster, showed excellent diagnostic skills at the line of scrimmage in the preseason while also displaying strong hands, a quick downhill trigger that allows him to shoot gaps well and some speed and range. It helps that the rookie played in a similar role as Milano while in college.
The Bills mainly utilize nickel personnel, as evidenced by Buffalo using five defensive backs between 90 and 100 percent of their snaps since 2020. They did use more dime personnel after Milano’s injury last year with three safeties to help offset the loss of Milano in pass coverage. That setup featured Hyde and ex-Ram Taylor Rapp on the back end and Poyer near the line of scrimmage.
However, with Hyde and Poyer’s elite ability to disguise coverages on the back end now gone, the Bills’ safety positions are now manned by Rapp (who is better playing near the line of scrimmage), the rangy and physical but inconsistent Damar Hamlin, veteran pickup Mike Edwards (he brings physicality and smarts and can play in the box or on the back end) and rookie Cole Bishop, who is an underrated and cerebral athlete.
At the boundary cornerback spots replacing White and Jackson are Christian Benford and Rasul Douglas, and are backed up by the tall and physical Ja’Marcus Ingram and Kaiir Elam, who has underwhelmed so far as a pro. Douglas, an ex-Green Bay Packer and Philadelphia Eagle, has great size and length, is versatile and a gambler – he can take chances because he understands route combinations very well (he had two interceptions and a fumble recovery against the New York Jets in November, the first Bill to do so in a game since Kurt Schulz in 1998 and led the NFL in takeaways last year with six after he was acquired). Slot corner Taron Johnson remains elite but will miss this week’s game with an arm injury and will be replaced by tweener Cam Lewis.
So far the dime setup has returned with Lewis manning the linebacker spot and Ingram taking over in the slot. It’s worked to the tune of four takeaways (tied for third) sixth in sack percentage and the eighth-least amount points allowed per game (tied with Jacksonville).
MIAMI GARDENS, FL - SEPTEMBER 12: Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills drops back to pass during an NFL football game against the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium on September 12, 2024 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images)
BILLS’ OFFENSE AN UPPER-ECHELON UNIT, BUT EVOLVING
Led by quarterback Josh Allen and a cadre of gifted pass-catchers, the Bills boasted one of the NFL’s elite offenses for the first time since the K-Gun was running roughshod over the league more than 30 years ago. Allen’s improved processing skills, ball placement, patience within the pocket and touch on passes allowed Buffalo to become one of the most feared attacks in pro football over the last four years (last year Allen was fourth in passing yards and tied for fifth in passing touchdowns while tying for third in rushing scores – leading the league in total yards and touchdowns in the process).
In 2023 the Bills were sixth in scoring, fourth in total yards, seventh in rushing and eighth in passing. They were also first in third down rate and fifth in red zone efficiency, yet their offense performed poorly over a six-game stretch where they averaged just 20.5 points per game. It resulted in then-offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey getting the boot in favor of quarterbacks coach and former Carolina Panthers play caller Joe Brady.
Like their defensive counterparts, the Bills are going through changes on this side of the ball because of age, the salary cap and a new coordinator. With Brady taking over the role full-time, the biggest philosophical change on offense for Buffalo will be to retain elements of what made them so good in the first place while adding in new and fresh concepts.
Between 2018 and last year, Buffalo’s offense was an Erhardt-Perkins system brought in from New England by then-coordinator Brian Daboll. It was built upon concepts involving option and crossing routes from the slot, downfield routes from the outside, run-pass options (especially in the red zone), designed quarterback runs to take advantage of Allen’s mobility and alignments that create favorable matchups and some trick plays with jet/orbit motion and sweeps. It was mostly out of “11” personnel groupings (one back, one tight end and three wide receivers), “10” personnel (one back, no tight ends, four receivers) and “12” personnel (one back, two tight ends and two receivers) – and would also go no-huddle from time to time to limit the opposition’s defensive calls.
The Bills’ multi-receiver sets were traditionally their offensive calling card. In 2020 they used four wide receivers or more 155 times – the second-most in the NFL at the time – and they utilized someone in motion on 43 percent of their offensive snaps, a huge increase from their 25 percent rate in 2019. Daboll – now the head coach of the New York Giants – also called for a passing play on 64 percent of their first downs, according to ESPN Stats and Information – no team with a winning record in the last 20 years did it more than Buffalo – and that rate continued in 2021 and ’22 with “11” personnel used on nearly three-quarters of their plays.
Daboll’s successor, Ken Dorsey, got away from those concepts for most of 2023 and tried to rely on the talent at his disposal winning one-on-one matchups instead of having the scheme help them get open. Once Brady was promoted, the Bills returned to them. He also included more under-center formations and play-action (which can still stand to increase after being a top-four team in run-fakes in 2020 and ’21), pre-snap shifts, motions, designed passes to running backs and route combinations with defined reads for Allen so he can play within structure.
Brady got his start in the NFL working for the New Orleans Saints and then-coach Sean Payton. Payton himself came from a melting pot of a background including stints running the Erhardt-Perkins scheme for Bill Parcells in Dallas and learning the West Coast offense from Jim Fassel in New York with the Giants and from Jon Gruden during their one-year stint together in Philadelphia in 1997, so Brady will bring a similar approach to the table while likely keeping some things the same in Buffalo.
Their biggest transaction on offense was trading the aging Stefon Diggs to Houston. Diggs, while never a burner on the outside, was an exceptional route runner who specialized in making contested catches and operated well out of bunch and stack formations – leading him to re-write many of the Bills’ single season receiving records.
In addition to Diggs, Buffalo has let veterans Gabriel Davis, John Brown, Cole Beasley, Isaiah McKenzie, Jamison Crowder, Trent Sherfield, Deonte Harty and Andy Isabella walk over the years. Many of them were productive, but nothing can last forever – hence the overhaul of the Bills’ wide receiver room in 2024.
The Payton offense is built through having big, physical targets who can get open over the middle of the field, especially on deep in-cuts, or “dig” routes. Payton has employed such players in those roles before like Marques Colston, Jimmy Graham, Michael Thomas and Courtland Sutton, and the drafting of rookie Keon Coleman from Florida State fits the bill for Brady. Coleman, whose game evoked comparisons to Colston, Brandon Marshall and Anquan Boldin coming out of college, brings size and physicality to the boundary ‘X’ position with good body control and strong hands to make contested catches and has some run after the catch ability. He does need to work on his speed, quickness and ability to beat press coverage, but in time he may improve in those areas.
While not a burner at the position (like free agent pickup Mack Hollins, who has similar skills), Coleman will be accentuated by speed in the form of Curtis Samuel – a poor-man’s Deebo Samuel who can line up both in the slot and outside the numbers and take handoffs – and deep threat Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who needs to work on his inconsistent hands. That speed was needed since Buffalo was just 28th in the NFL in plays of 20 yards or more last season according to Trumedia, and shifty third-year man Khalil Shakir returns to man the slot with his quickness, sure hands and savviness to get open versus zone coverage.
Tight end Dawson Knox is joined by second-year man Dalton Kincaid, and their diverse skillsets should allow the Bills to throw curveballs at opponents with multiple tight end sets. Kincaid lived up to the hype with 73 receptions a year ago, the most of any Bills rookie and surpassed Pete Metzelaars for the most catches by a tight end in one season. He also became the fourth rookie tight end since 1960 with 70 or more catches in a year.
The Bills’ offensive line is composed of Dion Dawkins, David Edwards, Connor McGovern (taking over at center for the departed Mitch Morse), O’Cyrus Torrence and Spencer Brown. This crew (which last year became the first unit to start every game in a regular season for Buffalo since 1989) along with fullback Reggie Gilliam has mainly executed outside zone runs along with zone-reads, pin-and-pull concepts, traps (especially with Dawkins as the puller), counters, split inside zone and sprint draw plays sprinkled in for running back James Cook. Cook, who had a breakout season in his first campaign as the starter, is backed up by physical rookie Ray Davis and ex-Jet Ty Johnson provides valuable depth with his receiving skills.
The starting front five had been iffy in providing push in the running game and in pass protection over the last couple of years but became a strength last season. In the past, most of the team’s rushing production came from Allen’s legs and few came from their backs – the Bills’ rushing attempts per game in 2022, 18.2, was last in the NFL but that number jumped to the highest in the NFL after Brady was promoted. Rushing for 266 yards against Dallas was the most such yardage under Sean McDermott since 2017 and in Week One against New York Buffalo surrendered five sacks (tied for the fifth-most in Allen’s career) but was taken down just 24 times overall in 17 regular season outings – the best mark in pro football.
So far that approach has continued in 2024. Buffalo has run the ball on 57 percent of their offensive plays, the highest figure in the NFL, and have also carried over their trend of using an extra offensive lineman to help in the running game. Now that Edwards has moved into the starting lineup, that extra guy is now Alec Anderson, and through two games the Bills have had 18 snaps with six linemen on the field – with 17 of them being called runs and the team averaging 5.7 yards per carry out of that personnel grouping.
One area the Bills need to clean up is protecting the ball. Over the last two years, they were one the league’s sloppiest teams – Allen had 14 interceptions and 13 fumbles in 2022 and Allen led the NFL with 18 interceptions last year.
While punter Sam Martin and kicker Tyler Bass have been excellent in the past, Bass has been a bit shaky lately. When Martin was named the NFL’s Special Teams Player of the Month in December – the first Bills punter to do so since Brian Moorman in November 2006 – and Bass collected the same honor earlier in the year, it was the first time both Bills specialists have won the award in one season. But Bass’ field goal percentage took a dip in 2023 – the question with him is, was it because he was getting acclimated to a new holder, or was it a mental block? Time will tell.
MIAMI GARDENS, FL - SEPTEMBER 12: James Cook #4 of the Buffalo Bills runs the ball during an NFL football game against the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium on September 12, 2024 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images)
STATS AND MUSINGS
· Allen has compiled 42 career regular season games with a passer rating of 100 or better and has reached that mark in 25 of his last 41 outings. In those games Buffalo’s record is 39-3, and he had a perfect quarterback rating against Miami in Week Four of last year – Doug Flutie was the only other Bills passer to accomplish that feat in a game back in 2000.
· Miller is the first defensive player in league history to sign two contracts worth at least $100 million. He is also vying to be the second player to win a Super Bowl with three different teams (Matt Millen was the first) and has moved past Dwight Freeney for 18th on the all-time sack list. Another will tie Derrick Thomas for 17th and 2.5 more will tie him with Rickey Jackson.
· After their victory in Miami, the Bills have compiled a road winning percentage of .675 (28-13) since 2019.
· Buffalo’s regular season record over the last three years with Allen is 49-18, and he’s 65-31 all-time as a Bill. Additionally, Allen’s career record in primetime is 16-6 and he and McDermott are 5-1 on Sunday Night Football. They’re also 7-1 on Thursdays, but just 3-4 on Monday Night Football.
· Since 2020 Buffalo has the best home record in the NFL – 33-9 including playoffs.
· The Bills haven’t lost a game by more than six points in their last 42 outings – the longest streak in NFL history. They’ve also won seven games in a row, the longest active streak in the league.
· Allen is just two rushing touchdowns away from moving past O.J. Simpson and 11 away from surpassing Thurman Thomas for second and first all-time, respectively, in Bills annals.
· According to Trumedia, the Bills faced man coverage on 32.7 percent of their snaps last year – the most in the NFL. However, heavy usage of man coverage isn’t foreign to the Bills’ offense. It’s been a staple against them over the last five years (48 percent in 2019, first, 35 percent in ’20, fifth, 33.3 percent in ’21, fourth and 29.3 percent in ’22, fifth).
· According to buffalobills.com, Allen has appeared in eight Monday Night Football games and thrown for 20 touchdowns – that ties him with Jim Kelly for the fourth-most scoring passes within a quarterback’s first 10 such games, with two more to play this season. Another two such passes will tie him with Peyton Manning and Dave Kreig for the third-most ever.
· Including playoffs, Buffalo has won 14 of their last 16 meetings with the Miami Dolphins going back to 2017. That’s the most by any team against one opponent in that timeframe.
· Last week Cook became the first Bill with two or more rushing touchdowns and a receiving score in one game since Thurman Thomas in 1992.
· This will be the first primetime game between the Bills and Jaguars since October 18, 2001 – a 13-10 win on a Thursday night (that was Gregg Williams’ first win as Buffalo’s coach). Tonight’s game will also be the second of four night games in Buffalo’s first six weeks – which are tied for the most that any NFL team has ever played.
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